The Cost of Doing Nothing
As wildfire smoke, geopolitical uncertainty and delayed electrification reshape the landscape, fleet managers should reconsider whether postponing sustainability initiatives is really the cheaper option.
This summer, many parts of North America had days where the sun was nearly invisible because of dense wildfire smoke. I can recall smog days decades ago, but the recent smoke events are much worse.
Smog is a thing of the past because governments legislated tough standards for engine exhaust emissions and fuels. Many fleets took up the challenge to go further and switched to lower emission fuels, or reduced fuel use, by eliminating unnecessary engine idling. Green fleet efforts helped reduce air pollution, so now we have cleaner air on most days.
Why green fleets lost momentum
Many municipalities declared climate emergencies in 2019, and most pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. As 2030 approaches, and we have more orange warnings from Environment Canada about wildfire smoke, I sense that green fleet plans are slowing, and even stopping altogether.
For a couple of years after the 2030 targets were announced, it seemed possible for fleets to reach them. General Motors and Ford were just two of the major fleet suppliers who said they would have many more electric vehicles to offer by 2025.
It didn’t turn out that way. Automotive supply chains and production were disrupted on a scale unforeseen as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded.
The next few years saw skyrocketing new vehicle price increases. The transit bus sector was one market segment that was strongly committed to going electric. It seemed possible that Canada’s goal of five thousand electric buses might be reached. But many transit systems were forced to cut back on electric bus orders to keep budgets under control. The electrification of transit has slowed down significantly.
Cost pressures limited choices for fleet managers, who may have considered switching to alternative fuels, such as natural gas or biodiesel. Gasoline and diesel price increases remained below the general rate of inflation, allowing many fleets to postpone looking for alternatives. The anticipated flood of new electric vehicles turned into a trickle.
"I sense that green fleet plans are slowing, and even stopping altogether."
The risks of standing still
This seems short-sighted to me. It is fair to point out that I have beaten the drums for greener fleets for years and should defend my work. But there are other compelling reasons to find ways to reduce fossil fuel dependency.
The most obvious example is the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East. Blocking a route that carries 20% of the world’s oil supply will eventually affect owners of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, whether through higher petroleum fuel prices or possible shortages. Switching to other fuels and reducing petroleum use is therefore a way to future-proof fleets.
Looking beyond today's challenges
The cost to replace battery packs in electric vehicles was one of the excuses for not buying electric that I heard most often. In fact, the frequency of battery failure has turned out to be less than the frequency of engine failure in ICE vehicles.
Some organizations went ahead with green fleet plans because they thought it was the right thing to do. In my opinion, it still is. But when it gets “too hard” or “too expensive,” creative fleet managers need to think of the cost of doing nothing before giving up.
BIO: Chris Hill is an experienced fleet manager and consultant, currently serving the City of Waterloo, Ontario. He has built his expertise through work with some of Canada’s best-known companies and several municipalities.
